what bubble?

I had an interesting message on the message board yesterday claiming that the rising cost of oil was a 'bubble'. Sorry to bring economics into this blog, but it is my degree subject and somebody else started it, and I don't believe we should leave false statements unchallenged!

In a bubble demand continues to increase as supply does, demand keeps just short of supply - otherwise of course the bubble would burst.

But look at the Supply Versus Demand chart above (for oil) courtesy Moneyweek magazine. (full article) .

I'd recommend Moneyweek to anyone who wants a fresh view on economics, finance etc! It knocks the staid and leftie Economist into a corner!

The blue line continues to rise, but the red line (supply) actually starts falling slightly from its height in 2005. It may well be that 2005 was the year of Peak Oil - this chart certainly seems to support this.

Even our unelected prime minister Gordon Brown today admitted that oil will now become scarcer and scarcer. This will all have an effect on future government policies, which will inevitably (now the cat's out of the bag!) revolve around increasing public transport provision as road traffic contracts due to the ever-increasing cost of fuel. That can only be good for the S&D. We're not asking much, only that planning permission is automatically granted for rail reinstatement and that the cost of land is pegged so that the reinstatement can proceed quickly.

And for those (non-economists) who insist we'll all be driving electric cars in the future - forget it, it's a pipe dream. Our electricity generating capacity is already under great strain, this will only get worse as oil becomes scarcer and the Chinese buy up all the coal and uranium. There are of course renewables, but these will also be affected by rising commodity costs. If lucky we'll be able to maintain generating capacity, though it's going to be a big challenge and will require about 20 new nuclear power stations. But the idea we'll all be able to drive magical little Noddy cars is a fantasy, cruelly encouraged by the media and some politicians. In any case the road infrastructure itself will begin breaking down soon, as the oil for asphalt becomes scarcer and more expensive, and first lorries, then cars, then buses begin to vanish from our crumbling roads.

The outlook for the S&D has never been brighter.

new record prices for oil ...

Motorists faced more grim news as oil hit a new record above 135 US dollars a barrel on supply fears and US economic concerns.

The fresh peak came in the week the AA motoring organisation reported the highest monthly rise in average diesel prices this century - up by 6.76p to 124.17p a litre. Petrol also leapt 4.49p to 112.55p a litre in the month to mid-May.

Crude oil for July delivery peaked at 135.04 dollars in overnight Asian trading as demand showed no signs of abating.

The spike came after US figures showed an unexpected drop in stockpiles, while downbeat growth forecasts from the US Federal Reserve weakened the dollar. Source.

Prices may fall again, but few now expect oil ever to go below $100/barrel again - yet even a year ago $100 oil was considered a fantasy. 10 years ago it was just $10 a barrel.

What this means for the S&D is uncertain. It may mean fewer visitors - though motorists are extremely unlikely to reduce their driving over the short term in response to higher petrol prices, despite all their moaning! They are more likely to cut back on other things. Long term it means a much brighter future for rail generally, as a persistently high oil price will result in people making lifestyle choices that will reduce their dependence on the car - but decent public transport needs to be in place to allow them to do this.

Much more on our associated site ...

S&D - a Polish view

We've had an excellent write up in a Polish railway blog.

After reading about the S&D take a look at some of the other features and see how a blog should look! I spent some time in Poland in 2004 and loved it. We saw the big standard gauge engines at Wolsztyn and were held up by one of them on the day we left at a level crossing - pulling a real service train.

S&D google map

Discovered via the commemts feature on this site - check this out, a Google map of the route thanks to David B!

around the station

Excuse the 60s feel to this (apart from my new car!) This was due to the settings on my camera getting messed up. But with a touch of serendipity it does remind me of those fading colour shots from the last days of steam!


A neat little side gate's been fitted behind the up platform shelter.



The greenhouse site has been cleared. Still not sure whether I'll be helping with this, although the bricklaying course is going brilliantly! It depends on other commitments ... but I'm sure whatever happens the greenhouse will be rebuilt this summer.

cowardice!

I was down at Midsomer Norton last Friday when John Rideout told me I could climb up the signal to take some photos.


The board was off and the old signal arm was lying in the gravel.


This bit wasn't too bad - I'd got up about ten feet.


But this was as far as I got! I've been afraid of heights since going up to the first stage of the Eiffel Tower ...

silver street protection works

Looking fantastic, the Silver Street protection works are now in place, and are as always a credit to the track works gang. Hidden under the neat chippings are the serious sliding buffer protection features which will stop any runaway falling into the road below. Hopefully within a few years all this will be swept away when the bridge is replaced and trains are heading towards Radstock again.


Back in October both the weather and the works were looking pretty miserable!

a lesson for us?

Tavistock will soon be reconnected to the network thanks to a deal that will also see 750 new homes built in the town. For just £18.5 million the entire 5 1/2 mile route will be restored with a new station built in Tavistock and a journey time to Plymouth of just 35 minutes. And there is already talk of restoring the whole route back to Okehampton, giving Tavistock a quick route to Exeter and London as well!

Surely there's a lesson for the S&D here? With similar developments planned in Radstock it must now be a good time to tie in restoration of the link to Frome with the new housing development? We are all going to have to use the trains in the future - does anyone still seriously believe that the average person in the street will be a car owner in ten or even five years' time? The railway has to be restored.

More here.

new facebook group

Recently started by our very own Robin Whitlock, why not take a look at and join the Restore Britain's Railways group.

I doubt anyone will propose the reopening of the above line (although there was a preservation attempt in the 1970s). Any ideas where it is? A second clue is that the line featured in a classic 1960s film ...

radstock

This will hopefully be the site for a new Radstock station once we switch extension from south to north.


The trackbed is clear throughout - though the route will need two new bridges.


The Five Arches are just waiting for track to be relaid.


With a ready built car park, toilets in place and even a children's playground, the new Radstock station will be a superb advert for the line, and would alleviate many of the access problems at Midsomer Norton South. It would also act as a superb high visibility 'advert' for the route and draw in casual passing visitors, with a main road and a very popular cycleway alongside. There are also rumours that Norton Radstock council are very keen to offload the route to the Trust. What are we waiting for??

up platform

At last - hi-res pictures of the excellent resurfacing of the up platform. And it looks like there was just enough tarmac to do the bend around the side of the station to the platform gate as well. It will be great when the whole car park area is resurfaced!

cheap solution to blockages!

Transition Transport UK now also has a blogsite
to complement its facebook presence. I promise future posts here will be S&D first and foremost but this is such a great video I thought it might give the S&D ideas where the trackbed is a bit difficult - run 9Fs down the middle of the street! Cheap, easy and spectacular, and conflict with road traffic will become less and less of a problem as cars and lorries disappear from our roads!

This will soon be a common sight in Porthmadog when the Welsh Highland links with the Festiniog on street - using steam!

transition transport UK

Since giving up my role at the Trust I've been looking for a way forward and I think I've found it - I've set up Transition Transport UK with the stated aim to provide information on both infrastructure planning and finance for modern (post-oil) transport to the rapidly growing Transition network in the UK.

The S&D will be part of this modern transport network. Bath is now a Transition City, as the towns and villages between Bath and Bournemouth take on the Transition model then hopefully they will start to look at ways of connecting themselves.

Transition Transport UK will not only look at heavy rail, but also light rail, tramways, cycleways, canals and bridleways/footpaths. Transition is a very proactive and positive non-political organisation working towards solutions that will address both Climate Change and Peak Oil, rather than looking at them (as many do) as discrete challenges.

random

A few fairly recent shots around the station.

I'm looking forward to seeing the new platform surface next week when I'm next at the station. We really are in the last few stages before reopening.

I miss the regular trips I used to make to Midsomer Norton! It was nice putting on new photos a few times a week. I'm always happy to put your pics, info and views on the blog so don't be shy and send them in!

progress!

Before!


After!! (Photo from SDRHT website)


Fantastic news is that the up platform is now completely resurfaced (see picture 3). This is a big step towards operating trains, and makes me really proud to be a life member of the Trust! It looks superb and is a credit to everyone involved. Can't wait to get started on that greenhouse to really set it off!

Picture four is what we're all about - restoring genuine steam services on an ever expanding stretch of Britain's finest line.

Can you really afford not to be part of it all?

The Big 50,000

I've just checked the stats and we're about 90 short of 50,000 visits since this blog started!

OK, there are a lot of repeat visits in there but even so that's an awful lot of exposure for our small line. I'm still amazed that most of the bigger lines don't even have a blog. They are missing a huge opportunity!