last chance to ...

... visit the Gartell Light Railway for this season, comes this Sunday (25/10/09). They're open from 10.00 and first train is at 10.30. Clocks go back the night before so use the extra hour in bed to be refreshed and ready to go and see them! Signed from Templecombe in the North and Henstridge lights in the South, you can't miss it. Take a leisurely trip down the Blackmore Vale behind a steam engine - they have two, remember! Food and drink are available on site, and the GLR is an ideal family destination.

(There are Santa trains in December for which booking is essential).

I am going to try to get down on Sunday so hope to see you there.

(All photos courtesy John Penny).

remember peak oil

The following extract is offered to give you a flavour of the complexity of the peak oil argument with plusses and minuses on both 'sides'.

Bear in mind that a billion barrels of oil is currently about 12 days' worldwide demand.

However you read this the one thing all are agreed on is that future oil supplies will be far more expensive to obtain, implying huge increases in the price of petrol and diesel at the pump. This can only be good for (non-oil operated!) rail.

An Update on Peak Oil (Yes, It’s Still a Problem)

Marcio Mello, the former explorationist from Petrobras and now independent petroleum consultant, electrified the Denver meeting of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas (ASPO).

In a riveting talk that lasted well over an hour, Marcio detailed the immense petroleum potential of offshore Brazil, as well as the Amazon Basin. If Marcio’s estimates are correct, Brazil may be the location of near 200 billion barrels of additional petroleum resources. That’s well within the range of current resource estimates for Saudi Arabia.

For good measure, Marcio described the petroleum potential of offshore West Africa — another 130 billion barrels — as well as the Congo region, with 50 billion barrels or more. Finally, Marcio described the “unknown potential of the US back yard, the Gulf of Mexico (GOM).” Marcio offered remarkable insight into the deep regions of the GOM, 100 miles and more offshore Texas and Louisiana. He showed early work he performed on a number of GOM areas, including the site of BP’s (BP: NYSE) recent billion-plus barrel find at the Tiber site. It was clear from the reaction of many in the ASPO audience that Marcio hit nerves. If his analyses of the South American, African and GOM petroleum systems are right, then in the future the world has access to much more conventional oil than people previously believed. But it’s not the same as saying the nothing has to change in modern habits of energy use. Getting this oil will require a trillion-dollar level of offshore, deepwater investment. It’s a 50 to 100 year project. The new thinking about deep petroleum systems may allow the world’s energy thinkers to back off from raw geologic concerns about the wheres and how-muches of resources. But like a game of “whack-a-mole,” the reduced worry about geology now translates into a new emphasis on exploration and development technology, as well as capital, skilled personnel, political issues, environmental safety and climate alteration. In the past 20 years, Marcio has pioneered the idea of detailed geochemical analysis of “petroleum systems” in the Southern Hemisphere. The goal of the work is to identify and locate deply buried oil-bearing zones. Marcio’s work led directly to dozens of oil finds by Petrobras, both onshore and offshore. His work has also led to significant oil finds in the Caribbean region, Colombia and Peru.

Some Bad News

After Marcio Mello offered his ebullient view of future oil supplies in the world’s deep waters, the next day was a return to earth for the assembled throng at the Denver meeting of the Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas. The day was filled with well-informed viewpoints on the looming issues of energy scarcity in a capital-constrained world. Among other things...Geologist Art Berman offered a decidedly negative view of the latest “big thing,” which is obtaining large volumes of natural gas from tight shales. In a comprehensive review of production and flow rates from several thousand wells drilled in the past decade in the Barnett Shale of Texas, Mr. Berman has a gloomy forecast. Looking at a large sampling of Barnett wells, the overall data reveal that initial gas flows decline rapidly. With some wells, the drop-off is as much as 70% in the first year, with further declines of 20% in the second year. This hardly dovetails with the happy talk about how “shale gas” will supply U.S. energy requirements for the next several decades, if not a couple of centuries. It appears that most Barnett wells are short-term money losers, with a few prolific wells carrying the bulk of capital expenditure. Across the industry, according to Mr. Berman, the whole process stays afloat due to liberal application of borrowed money, as well as dilution of existing shareholders by production companies issuing new stock. According to Mr. Berman, the picture is not much better in other shale plays, such as the Fayetteville and Haynesville shales. And similar gloomy data are just now starting to come in on the embryonic gas play in the giant Marcellus formation of Pennsylvania

And Peak Oil Still Looming

Matt Simmons gave another of his famous talks about the specter of Peak Oil. The only things that are changing, according to Mr. Simmons, are that things are getting worse for future energy supplies. It’s difficult to say with specificity how bad things are, because the data are so poor on a worldwide basis. “Look at what happened with the bad information we had, or didn’t have, with the financial institutions over the past couple of years,” said Mr. Simmons. “With our energy data, it’s worse. We’re in for some shocks that will change our lives in ways that’ll rival Pearl Harbor.” Expect to see oil at $200 per barrel by the end of 2010, according to Mr. Simmons. Also expect to see net oil exports from Mexico simply vanish within 24 months or less. This will play havoc with U.S. refiners on the Gulf Coast. Mexico has simply delayed for too long its effort to explore, drill and rebuild its fast-depleting oil resources. Mexico is going to have to scramble to salvage something from its looming energy disaster. These die are cast. Things could go wrong with energy supplies in any of a dozen places, according to Mr. Simmons. For example, there’s a stealth “Twitter revolution” in Iran that’s slowly shutting down that country’s oil production. Shutting down the oil industry was the straw that broke the camel’s back and brought down the Shah in 1979. There’s some thinking that it may work to rid Iran of its mullahs. In Venezuela, the output of the state oil company PdVSA is declining at alarming rates due to political interference and underinvestment. In Nigeria, the low-grade civil war could quickly morph into a large-scale civil war. In Iraq, according to Mr. Simmons, “They’re in the dark about how to rebuild their oil industry.” And of course, a lucky terrorist shot could take down any of hundreds of major oil installations worldwide, wreaking havoc through the following ripple effect. Mr. Simmons admires Brazil’s Petrobras, calling it “the finest large oil company in the world today.” But the offshore success of Petrobras will simply not be able to make up for the multitude of other problems with the global energy industry. There won’t be enough oil, and it won’t arrive in time. Longer term, Mr. Simmons expects to see oil at $500-700 per barrel. “People need to understand how expensive it is to obtain oil,” said Mr. Simmons.

Much of the world’s energy infrastructure is old and rusting and will require several trillions of dollars to replace — if it can be replaced. (Is there enough steel, for example? Where will the money come from?) Add the aging work force, within which many new hires were laid off in the past year. There’s a serious lack of skilled talent across the board, and no amount of clever management and automated “expert systems” will make up the difference. Finally, new technology is coming on line slower than most people anticipated. The deeper, more challenging environments are sucking down technology and money, and yielding less than expected in many cases. According to one study, only eight out of 100 major energy projects came in on time, were within budget and yielded the expected volumes of oil and natural gas. Thus are high costs, delays and reduced cash flows hurting the ability of the energy industry to maintain adequate levels of capitalization.

The stark fact is that oil is going to get a lot more expensive and the bull market in oil will be firmly in place for a long time. Smart investors would take advantage of any corrections or dips to get themselves set for the ride.

flattery

No, not the S&D in 1966 (though it might be in 2036!) but the recent S&D day at the Mid Hants Railway.

It's amazing that other lines have S&D days. This shows just how popular our line is! It also gives a taste of what we'll be able to achieve on the New S&D once we have a good stretch rebuilt. Imagine this up over Masbury, sweeping over the rebuilt Prestleigh Viaduct, powering through Midford or pacing through Sturminster Newton and Shillingstone on its way to the sea!

Although the New S&D won't be primarily about preservation, heritage or coal-fired steam, we still understand the huge appeal of the S&D to those who love steam and all it represents. We will do everything we can to provide steam services at all points on the route by encouraging steam locomotive owners to base their engines at our Steam Centre, to make access easy and free for the Midsomer Norton and Shillingstone groups and to research into new wood-burning steam locomotives for regular services. These will, of course, be in addition to the regular electrically-hauled passenger and freight trains.

(Pics © Mark Warr September 2009)

sturminster newton and that 'peak oil moment'

We've had some fun on the comments pages revolving around Sturminster Newton, the SRG, rail revival and even the difficulty for rail revival of houses built on OUR trackbed.

Mick Knox, as always spot on, came up with this -

Any houses built at Sturminster on the trackbed will be blighted before they are even finished. As they will be modern it won't take long to knock them down anyway. And if you don't believe that will ever happen, it has been done before, to new build near Worksop. Goods and people need to travel and the price for being totally dependent on oil is being in Iraq and Afghanistan, so it is a high price we are paying. We should be investing in alternatives, and rail is that future, so sometime soon the pressure to re-open will be too great to ignore. Just say it kicks off in Iran, what then for the world's supply of oil from the gulf area? Imagine the panic back in 2000 during the fuel protests, but this time it would be so much worse. Sort of changes things a bit, doesn’t it?

And I added -

However things pan out - whether oil wars precipitate matters, whether we just get sidelined as China and India grab all the oil or if it's a slow decline into an oil-less future, the outcome will be the same. Crumbling roads, less of us able to run cars and a huge scramble to get lines reopened and totally new routes built.
　
To be fair to some of the nostalgic posters here, until you've had your 'Peak Oil' moment, when suddenly the future becomes clear, this may all seem a little strange. But once you've had it, the way things are being done now - with houses still being seriously proposed on lines that will need to be opened soon, and even a few road schemes STILL being suggested, and bail-outs of car companies - once you've had it most of what's being done today will seem far stranger!
　
The need to shift from an oil importing economy to a sustainable energy-independent economy is getting more vital every day. The New S&D is an important part of that process. I'm sorry if that upsets some (pre-Peak Oil moment) readers, heritage railway fans and petrolheads, but that's just the way it is.
　
　
　

the new s&d - out there

Well, we're getting our name around.

David Robins, vice-chair of the Wessex Regionalists was at our Blandford meeting and this is his article which recently appeared in the Wessex Chronicle.

ONCE MORE SHALL WE GO?

No more will I go to Blandford Forum and Mortehoe
On the slow train from Midsomer Norton and Mumby Road.
No churns, no porter, no cat on a seat
At Chorlton-cum-Hardy or Chester-le-Street.
We won't be meeting again

On the slow train.

Slow Train, Flanders & Swann (1963)

The Wessex Chronicle has mentioned the Somerset & Dorset Railway before. Resisting absorption all the way up to nationalisation in 1948, it is emblematic of ‘provincial’ defiance of a top-down managerialist world. Until 1966 it also provided a very useful north-south rail link of which Wessex, strung out along routes serving London, has so few. But change is in the air.

This year has seen the launch of a group calling itself The New Somerset & Dorset Railway. Its long-term goal is no less than the re-opening of the line – or as much as proves practical. To provide extra capacity at the ends it includes within the project two non-S&D routes also axed by Beeching, the North Somerset line from Radstock into Bristol and the Hamworthy to Brockenhurst line into Hampshire. More immediate plans are to encourage preservation of the trackbed and station sites and to promote awareness of the potential for rail to meet future transport needs.

In September, Chairman Steve Sainsbury informed a supporters’ meeting at Blandford’s Railway Hotel (above) that re-opening is no pipe dream. Some 90-95% of the trackbed remains unobstructed by development and over time the rest can be acquired and cleared, or else diversions built. The Scottish Government is re-opening 35 miles of the Waverley line south of Edinburgh, buying up and demolishing 65 houses in the process. Growing congestion on the roads is forcing transport planners to think the unthinkable, while dwindling oil supplies can only add momentum to the cause.

In the longer perspective, the railway has only been closed temporarily. Three small stretches of line have already been brought back into use by preservationists at Midsomer Norton, Templecombe and Shillingstone. Steve emphasised that New S&D is not in competition with these groups; its aim is to ensure that the bigger picture remains to the fore, with the new railway accommodating a mix of passenger, freight and heritage trains. With careful planning, tourism can benefit greatly, the railway being both a means of access and an attraction in its own right

little clues from big government

The Glasgow Airport rail link has been abandoned even though preliminary work was already being done. This is sending a very clear message - either the UK government or the Scottish government (or more likely both) accept that air travel is a doomed form of transport and the clear misallocation of resources that a new airport rail link would clearly be is sending the wrong signal. Of course they can't simply state the facts but rather hide behind the world economic crisis and/or climate change.

But every day we are seeing more and more little clues from big government as to what is really happening. The whole process started years ago when the Channel Tunnel was opened as exclusively a rail link. The abadonment of Concorde was the first step in the abandonment of civilian air travel. The switch of resources in the UK from road to rail is striking. That open door is getting wider every day.

Even just a few years ago there were some people who SERIOUSLY believed that the S&D would not reopen. They were living in a dream world of never-ending cheap oil, of benign government and a self regulating atmosphere that could take every punishment we threw at it with no payback. How far off those days seem now!

busy week ahead

I've jotted down next week as a New S&D power workout week! So expect plenty of (S&D!) blog posts, our first newsletter (Right Lines), more web content and more offers on our ecommerce site.

The next few months are going to be pretty hectic with the setting up of North and South sales teams, the printing of our first membership leaflet and a press release blitz on the rail magazines and local papers. Expect a MUCH higher New S&D profile in 2010. We really do have an excellent management team in place!

Also pencilled in for 2010 is steam at Midford. 7¼" gauge of course, but steam all the same!

majorca : 3

The only (currently) working tramway on Majorca is the 4km line from Soller to Port de Soller. This is a very busy line and two or three trams (all pulling up to 3 trailers) work each service.

The line starts by Soller railway station (the oldest railway building in the world!), runs across the town square brushing the restaurant tables, does a bit of street running, then cuts through the town past back gardens before joining the roadside just outside the port for the final stretch right alongside the sea.

The trams are packed even out of season. There is no way a bus would carry similar loads or have a tenth of the appeal. And all worked by electricity and mainly off the road. The trams are ancient but in very good shape. This is real sustainable transport and at €4 per single journey no doubt very profitable!

Trams are due to make a comeback in Palma very soon - more tomorrow.

majorca : 2

The above four views are of the Soller Railway in Majorca. This 3 feet gauge electric line runs from a separate station in Palma to the inland town of Soller. Opened on the day the Titanic sank, it originally served to bring products (mainly oranges and lemons) from Soller to the coast. It still uses the original wooden locos and rolling stock and carries over a million passengers a year. The locos look very Swiss, as does the street and roadside running section in Palma.

But still this line disturbs me. It should be offering a freight service and a few proper passenger turns, using modern stock. The timetable is bizarre. There are a few trains in the morning from Palma to Soller but up at Soller there is a gap of four hours (between 2.30 and 6.30pm) with no trains. This has the effect of stranding passengers in Soller (or Port de Soller if you take the tram). Now Soller's a lovely place, but four hours is too much.

I get the impression there's a sort of conspiracy between the railway and the canny residents of Soller - the railway abandons passengers to the shops and restaurants of Soller and Port de Soller. It's a bit like being cattle as the crowds, even out of season, are immense. Great for the railway, but I don't like being told I can't go on the platform, and the barriers don't seem right on a line of this nature.

But at least the line's still there, and as time goes by the management might 'get' customer care!

majorca 1

Last Tuesday we took our first trip on the Majorca Railways system. This was once a network of lines which reached Sa Pobla, Arta, Felanixt, Santanay and Palma port. By 1981 all but the Palma to Inca section remained and even this was in danger, despite being double track.

However the Majorcan government were very far sighted and decided that rather than abandon the railways they were going to develop them. The line was regauged from 3 feet to metre and the closed sections between Inca and Sa Pobla and Manacor have been reopened, in 2001 and 2004 respectively. There is now considerable pressure to reopen the Arta line and also to extend the Sa Pobla line to the coast at Alcudia. I fully expect this to happen sooner rather than later!

Palma main station is now underground and is very impressive. It also serves the very new (2007) metro line to the University. In fact for the first couple of miles it's a real underground railway with three stations, although served partly by diesel trains.

In rebuilding the route much of the original charm of the narrow gauge has been lost, but heavy passenger usage suggests that this is a good thing! Not many tourists find the railway, so there's plenty of potential. I couldn't see any freight facilities en route, but there are new doubling works north of Inca to where the Sa Pobla and Manacor lines diverge.

Ideally these lines should be electrified over the next 10 years or so, as it seems daft to pour in loads of capital supporting a doomed form of transport (diesel).

All in all the Majorca situation where a rail network almost vanished entirely but now is looking at expanding all over (there is also serious talk of another line from Manacor to Palma via the Airport, a tram from Palma to the airport, a tram from the airport to Arenal and a light railway from Port Pollença to Ca'an Picafort connecting to the new Alcudia line) shows what can happen when people look ahead rather than backwards!

Photos 1) DMU at Palma.
2) Train at Manacor.
3) The protected route towards Arta in Manacor.
4) Steam train in very modern surroundings! (Palma)

sturminster developments

(Bottom pic Jeffery Grayer 1967)

Fantastic news out of Sturminster, easily countering the dinosaur decision earlier this year to put houses on the trackbed! A new S&D group, STURMINSTER RAIL GROUP, has just launched. This is a totally independent group from the existing S&D groups on the route and they will be concentrating on the Sturminster Newton to Henstridge section with the intention of acquiring trackbed etc for the eventual restoration of trains to this part of the S&D. The New S&D would certainly commit to then restoring beyond Henstridge to Templecombe to link this section to the network, probably more quickly than if a group hadn't sprung up locally.

We would love to see similar groups appear all along the route, obviously working closely together but independently. It is precisely this local involvement and knowledge that will be the key to getting our job done as quickly as possible.

To contact this new group please email bournemouthwest@aol.com

Their opening statement goes as follows -

Hi! Just a quick mail to let you know that [we] are forming a group (Sturminster Rail group) which is primarily concerned with obtaining track bed of the former S&D in the Sturminster to Henstridge area.

Most of this track bed lies in open countryside, and the reaction of land owners will be, hopefully, positive for either selling/leasing the actual track bed across their land for rail usage again. There are no major problems on this particular route with the exception of Sturminster Newton town itself (where the deep cutting and road over bridges were filled in and destroyed respectively).

I hope we can all 'pull' together to realise this very important route is re instated wherever possible, and we, as a group will do all we can to ensure this outcome.

return

Safely back from rain soaked Majorca! A few teaser shots for you - all will come clearer in future posts.

While I was away there were loads of New S&D developments including the possible setting up of another revival scheme on the main line!! Still recovering from jet lag (there's a one hour time difference LOL!) and huge piles of business work so please be patient ...