Fuel prices seem to be hitting the news again, in amongst all the other reports of price rises.
The tanker drivers are whimpering, reminding us of nothing more than the coal miners in the 80s, haulage companies are whining about their costs, regular car drivers are moaning about the price of fuel. Anyone would think it was expensive! It isn't. It will never be this cheap again.
An amazing statement today, and I haven't made this up, was 'Drivers will ALWAYS pay whatever price is asked for fuel, even ten pounds a gallon!' There's an implication that ten pounds a gallon is some incredibly distant, almost unfeasibly high price that we won't see in our lifetimes. Really? The very use of 'gallon' suggests some old dinosaur fart, looking back to some nostalgic past where petrol was, for example, £1.98.7 per gallon. Well £10 per gallon equates to about £2.22 a litre. Some pundits are already expecting it to hit £1.50 per litre THIS summer, with crude oil reaching $100-$200 per barrel within a year or so. That price of £2.22 per litre will soon seem cheap.
But of course it won't only be the cost of petrol that's a factor, but its availability. And that will be the real crunch. A mix of high prices, crumbling roads and uncertainty of supply will drive almost all drivers off the road. And that's when rail will be the obvious answer to EVERYONE, not just those of us that are forward-thinking. Opportunity will knock far sooner than most of us expect.
3 comments:
BBC Lincolnshire has stated that it will cost £300 million to sort out the damage done to the roads over this winter and the winter of 2009-2010, some repairs from the latter period have still not been fixed. Now I'm well aware that Lincolnshire is a big county but it aint exactly covered with lots of trunk roads (well the A1 and A52 I guess). The cost is phenominal but I'm pleased to say at last that more interest is being taken in railways, with the Sleaford-Skegness line being further upgraded. So things are turning.
With inflation at 4%, we're looking at a £10 gallon within 15 years anyway. £20 a gallon would have been a better superlative, but I'd be surprised if we didn't see that before 2020.
£10 and even £20 a gallon will probably be a very optimistic forecast for 15 year's time, though of course the effect of inflation works both ways, with income also rising. £10 a litre will probably be closer to the mark within ten years.
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