climate change proofing

I doubt there's a person left on the planet who doesn't now accept that climate change is not only happening but that it is far worse than even the biggest pessimists forecast.

As well as railways I've a keen interest in the weather so not totally without knowledge, and it's pretty clear to me that this year's extreme rainfall events are very abnormal, not so much in their intensity but in their frequency. Here in Bristol in 2012 we've had FIVE 'month's worth of a rain in a day' events with rainfall well over 50mm, one of which (yesterday) was over 60mm and another over 70mm. In the UK as a whole we've had about twelve of these events. We'd normally expect one or two a year.

There is now a whole new groundswell that Peak Oil won't save us from Climate Change, that it's simply too late. I'm beginning to agree with that, which is a HUGE turnround for me! We can't stop Climate Change but we can adapt to it.

This week's events have caused massive problems for the Network, especially around Exeter. The section where the Barnstaple (and future Ilfracombe, Bude, Torrington, North Cornwall and Plymouth) services leave the GWR main line has been particularly badly hit, yet this happens regularly. Some commentators have suggested that the lines may not reopen for THREE WEEKS! Unfortunately the alternative route (that Beeching would have loved to have closed!) via Salisbury has also suffered from flooding, though not as severe. In effect the whole of Devon and Cornwall are cut off.

Yet surely the solution, at least at Exeter, is simple? Why not just rebuild the routes around the junction on a low viaduct, so that the water just flows under them and also safely off the track, which could be mounted onto steel girders? Even a modern diesel train can run through a few feet of water, if the driver can be sure there's no washed out ballast etc.

My point is that we are going to rely 100% on our railways to get around and move freight in the future. Flood spots are well known, as are those sections prone to blizzards, drifting and high winds. We'll also need to allow for greater expansion as heatwaves become more common.

As for the S&D we have two major problem sections - the climb over the Mendips (Shepton has always been notorious for snow!) and the Burnham branch, which lies on the Somerset Levels. In both cases these routes will need to be totally weatherproofed so the line can stay open no matter what the weather.

The same policy needs to be adopted by the entire Network. Where the S&D leads the rest should follow ...

overwhelmed

The New S&D have had loads of new members join in the last few weeks, possibly as a result of the recent Steam Railway magazine article.

To those of you who have sent in cheques or paid by Paypal please accept my apologies for the delay in getting your membership cards etc to you. I will do everything I can to get them out in this coming week!

There's certainly a feeling in the air that huge changes are coming to our railways, all of them good! With new lines opening up both in the heritage and network sectors this really is beginning to feel like the great rail revival we've been forecasting for years.

So if you want to see railways and tramways spring up everywhere in response to Peak Oil and Climate Change please join (or start!) a local society or group, get involved at the grass roots level and help to make this happen. You'll learn new practical skills, make loads of new friends and inevitably form the sort of network of contacts that will stand you in good stead in the future.

These are amazing times for the railway community. You owe it to yourselves to get involved!

spetisbury returns to the menu

(Click for larger view!)

New S&D member Dean Cockwell has taken on the task on moving forward our plans for Spetisbury. Unlike Midford, where we own the land, Spetisbury is owned by Dorset County Council, so we would only be leasing the site.

The initial plans for Spetisbury is to restore the buildings and open the site as a southern information centre for the route. But Spetisbury is a far less cramped site than Midford, it was also on a double track section of route. This does suggest that it may be viable to lay at least single track eventually, which will give the site more of a railway feel.

Although we've not given a lot of thought to what the information offices will contain, it's probable that there will be information boards, perhaps a model railway, some sales items and also a lot of info and books on the wider issues of Peak Oil and Climate Change, as well as railway items. There will also of course be lots of information on the other S&D groups at Midsomer Norton, Shillingstone, Gartell and Washford.

We expect that the two information offices will serve to push the New S&D to the next level, with a lot more publicity, engagement with the community and a lot of new members joining. They will also be an excellent opportunity for members to work together on the nuts and blots work of rebuilding these tiny bits of the S&D.

the electric car con

So our 'green' government are giving a £5000 subsidy to everyone who buys an electric car and are planning to put in thousands of charging points for these groundbreaking 'green' vehicles.

Of course far from being 'green' electric cars actually pour out even more pollution than a traditional petrol or diesel car. How? Because the electricity has to be generated, normally by burning coal or oil. And each step in an energy conversion programme loses some energy, typically 20%. Both coal and oil are dirty polluters, churning out CO2 as well as further depleting our rapidly diminishing reserves. So all electric cars will do is pollute more and deplete faster, the ultimate con. Hopefully this should be enough to wipe the smug smirks off the faces of electric car drivers and encourage people to switch from road to rail.

Of course if the electricity is generated by renewables that's a different matter, but even renewables use traditional energy in their construction and maintenance. The best thing is to rebuild our rail network where the energy is used far more efficiently. Electric cars are a con. Electric railways and tramways are the way forward.

cycleways and railways - the future's big two!

We had an interesting email from a cyclist yesterday which brings up some interesting questions. I think the easiest way to address this is to simply reproduce the questions and answers here.
Personally I would like to see us broaden the aims of the New S&D to build a railway AND cycleway along (or near) the route, and would welcome your comments on this idea.

The email reads -

I am rather confused with the ambitious aims of this project which seem to contradict current policy within the local authorities.



Tremendous effort is being put in by North Dorset District and Dorset County Councils to re-open the line where possible for cyclist, equestrians and walkers.


Understandably, this has massive public support. Such use will be available to a wide range of users and hopefully those on low incomes to.It will have a minimum impact on the environment and will add to the public enjoyment of the countryside through which it passes. As this is predominantly a single track line I ask how you propose to re-open a railway and accommodate the Dorset Cycleway ?

I am aware how the Bodmin and Wenford railway intends to relay track on what has become the Camel Trail, however, there is room on the railway earth works to accommodate both. I do not believe that would be the case in Dorset.


Do you have the support of any of the local authorities ?


I find this a bizarre and perhaps over ambitious project. I am both a rail enthusiast and cyclist, but your project throws me completely.

I would be interested to hear from you.

My response was

The first thing to bear in mind is that this is a long term project, which will take decades rather than years to achieve.



The second point is that the S&D is predominantly a double track main line, there were a few short stretches of single track (Broadstone-Creekmoor, Blandford to Templecombe and Midford to Bath) so there is plenty of room for both a cycleway and a railway throughout. As far as I am aware the Dorset cycleway is mainly on double track sections of the route. Even where the line was single track most of the earthworks, bridges etc were built for double track – this was common on many single track railways, even branch lines.


It’s also important to bear in mind that we believe that Peak Oil and to a lesser extent Climate Change will force a huge rebuilding of the rail network, not simply a reversal of the Beeching cuts (which is of course already happening) but also lines to places that previously never had trains. We also believe that the road network will fall into gradual disuse, some of these roads may well then be converted into cycleways, bridleways etc.


The conversion of railways to cycleways was a bit of a stop gap measure to preserve the physical rights of ways of these lines which will be so essential in the future. We are just doing our tiny bit with a small project to ensure that the S&D gets to the top of the queue as railways are rebuilt. The fact that we are, in the main, railway enthusiasts too (with many cyclists on board as well) hopefully will ensure that the S&D is reinstated with the full participation of the people in the communities we pass through, rather than be bulldozered through by a government intent on restoring railways at all costs, which will be the most likely outcome as Peak Oil hits full on.


We already work closely with Sustrans at Midford and certainly intend to create both a top class railway and cycleway between Bath and the coast. The best thing is to get involved to ensure that your views are always to the fore, though as sustainable transport enthusiasts we are all just as keen on cycleways as we are on railways, rather like yourself!

DCC is certainly supportive of us but we have deliberately kept the project low key until recently, but a rapidly increasing membership is changing that! How things are now are not really much of a pointer as to how things will be in the future, but I’m sure you’ll agree that rail will be an enormously important part of the sustainable transport mix in an energy constrained future. For all of a bike’s utility we can’t really expect them to ever haul 1000 tonne loads over the Mendips! That will be our job ...

potholing

Last winter's cold December - itself almost certainly a result of climate change influenced atmospheric anomalies - has resulted in a nother rash of potholes on our crumbling road network. And the cost to fix it? Up to ten billion pounds!

That's almost £200 per person in the UK, a ridiculous subsidy for a piece of infrastructure that is surely in its twilight years.

But I do appreciate that it is needed, despite this. A crumbling road network, a very strong indicator that Peak Energy is with us, is a costly thing to not repair as well. Cars can travel more slowly but let's be realistic, the real damage is caused by our dinosaur lorries. That's why the ten billion would be much better spent on expanding the rail network so it can start taking the freight traffic. This will protect the roads for the few more years they have left. This is quite clearly a case of throwing good money after bad.

It won't be the end of oil that finishes the car culture, but the impossibility of maintaining the road network. Remember that road surfacing itself uses large amounts oif oil. Rail doesn't have this problem!



odd views ...

This came into the comments section overnight. I usually have a bit of a dilemma with this sort of post as I'm aware that you lot can be quite forthright! But, for a troll, it is quite erudite, and it does give the opportunity of addressing points - or in most cases reiterating them, so I'm not going to look this gift horse in the mouth! I'll show it in full first, then look at each point raised.

Climate change is nothing new. The earths climate, like it's geography has, and always will be changing. But at least the loonie leftist 'warmists' have had to withdraw that idiotic idea and have conceeded that is no longer a fact.

The arch idiot who subscribed to that now defunct idea, is the Al Gore [who has lined his own pockets well from the false flag!]

Aside from that, oil is not about to run out anytime soon....according to PROVEN geological studies and test drillings, the U.S. is said to hold the largest UNTAPPED oil reserves on the planet including the middle east! Also, oil wells thought to have been previously pumped out and abandoned, have 'miraculously' filled again with oil! This is verifiable fact.

However, the middle east conflict is not, as many uninformed would believe, a purely spontaneous outburst. Of course, the wise [!] strategist will wish to use someone ELSE'S oil first, before using their own! Also, there is a strategy at play here by the NWO [new world order] whose aim is to destabilise all middle eastern countries in preparation for UN [united nazis] who are themselves owned by the nwo elite, to take over and control of government of oil producing nations and hence ALL oil output. This however, does NOT mean the ordinary 'joe' on the street will get cheaper oil! In fact, the aim is to keep oil at a regulated high price which gives nwo government the final say in just WHO can and cannot afford to drive personal transport. Bottom line, it's ALL about C O N T R O L of the 'masses' which is what nwo government is about. What relation does this have to this site?

Well, let's look at this whole issue in a slightly wider aspect than a group of well meaning people wishing to re instate a defunct railway....whether you [the reader] believe in the nwo [again, verifiable] or not, is your perogative. What I am saying is that you may choose to ignore what you may view as the larger issues , but the nwo aims will NOT ignore YOU. Like it or not, we ALL of us, rely on road transport, and oil: Our whole western civillisation is based around the use of and consumption of oil!

How are ANY transport systems going to run without oil? ALL machines, even steam locos, need a certain amount of grease, oil to be able to run! Much as the romantisism of railways is being played, fact is, people will always be reliant on personal transport to get them TO the train in first place! And I ask you: Are YOU prepared to do away with yo ur car RIGHT now, and rely on rail to get you where you need to be? You think fuel prices are high? Try rail fares for a few days! Truth is, people will NEVER return to using rail transport in the way they HAD to when I was young....those days are GONE. I am not saying rail doesn't have an important, indeed vital role to play in the movemnt of bulk freight in this day and age, but as prime 'people mover'? No, only for rare long distance travel do most ever use them, aside from regular commuter routes of course. Fact is, people like their privacy and comfort...can some of YOU people HONESTLY envisage getting to your preservation pastime WITHOUT a car? Without the tools you use to do the clearing? If your cars were taken away from you, I think membership of these projects would fall to ZERO!Not being a 'damp squib' just being real.

Here we go - this will be fun!!

Climate change is nothing new. The earths climate, like it's geography has, and always will be changing. But at least the loonie leftist 'warmists' have had to withdraw that idiotic idea and have conceeded that is no longer a fact.

First bear in mind that this is a private blog. I rarely mention climate change as it is not anywhere near as important as Peak Oil. However to bring in a political perspective here, as the writer does, is particularly ingenuous. True, the fact of climate change was originally propounded by people on the right, but it is now pretty much universally accepted. The main sceptics are either paid by oil companies or are on the far left, who in their idiocy think the whole world can live at the level of the average lower middle class family in the west - climate change rather stops this ambition dead in its tracks. It's therefore a POLITICAL point of view, rather than a scientific one.

#The arch idiot who subscribed to that now defunct idea, is the Al Gore [who has lined his own pockets well from the false flag!]

Al Gore is a multi millionaire goon, who has made a living from pushing a particularly unscientific view of global warming. We completely agree on this point!

However, the middle east conflict is not, as many uninformed would believe, a purely spontaneous outburst. Of course, the wise [!] strategist will wish to use someone ELSE'S oil first, before using their own! Also, there is a strategy at play here by the NWO [new world order] whose aim is to destabilise all middle eastern countries in preparation for UN [united nazis] who are themselves owned by the nwo elite, to take over and control of government of oil producing nations and hence ALL oil output. This however, does NOT mean the ordinary 'joe' on the street will get cheaper oil! In fact, the aim is to keep oil at a regulated high price which gives nwo government the final say in just WHO can and cannot afford to drive personal transport. Bottom line, it's ALL about C O N T R O L of the 'masses' which is what nwo government is about.

This is pure idiocy. When people start talking about a 'New World Order' you know they are spending hours alone on the internet reading fringe US sites that believe in conspiracy theories, UFOs, ghosts and all the other rubbish that fills our lives.

What relation does this have to this site?What relation does this have to this site?


None whatsoever. I am the world's biggest sceptic. My first degree is in economics, a very logical science.

Well, let's look at this whole issue in a slightly wider aspect than a group of well meaning people wishing to re instate a defunct railway....
The S&D is not 'defunct'. It is an essential piece of transport infrastructure with a fantastic future.

whether you [the reader] believe in the nwo [again, verifiable] or not, is your perogative. What I am saying is that you may choose to ignore what you may view as the larger issues , but the nwo aims will NOT ignore YOU. Like it or not, we ALL of us, rely on road transport, and oil: Our whole western civillisation is based around the use of and consumption of oil!Well, let's look at this whole issue in a slightly wider aspect than a group of well meaning people wishing to re instate a defunct railway....


Idiocy. The NWO is an invention by fools, and don't frighten me any more than Casper the Friendly Ghost. It's nonsense.

How are ANY transport systems going to run without oil? ALL machines, even steam locos, need a certain amount of grease, oil to be able to run!
So you believe ALL oil will vanish?? Of course it won't, there will be some extremely expensive oil available, for specialist uses. Rail will be a priority hence will get the oil.

Much as the romantisism of railways is being played, fact is, people will always be reliant on personal transport to get them TO the train in first place!

What the fuck has romanticism got to do with anything? We are talking about transport, an essential thing we all need. Personal transport includes foot, cycle and horse. The workers at Midford currently arrive on foot or by bus. Many of the workers at Midsomer Norton and Shillingstone live within walking distance of the stations.

And I ask you: Are YOU prepared to do away with yo ur car RIGHT now, and rely on rail to get you where you need to be? You think fuel prices are high? Try rail fares for a few days!And I ask you: Are YOU prepared to do away with yo ur car RIGHT now, and rely on rail to get you where you need to be? You think fuel prices are high?Much as the romantisism of railways is being played, fact is, people will always be reliant on personal transport to get them TO the train in first place!Like it or not, we ALL of us, rely on road transport, and oil: Our whole western civillisation is based around the use of and consumption of oil!How are ANY transport systems going to run without oil? ALL machines, even steam locos, need a certain amount of grease, oil to be able to run!whether you [the reader] believe in the nwo [again, verifiable] or not, is your perogative. What I am saying is that you may choose to ignore what you may view as the larger issues , but the nwo aims will NOT ignore YOU.

Why would I need to do away with my car NOW? I am well off and expect to be able to continue to use my car until diesel reaches around £5 a litre. And fuel prices aren't high, they are very low. But not for much longer.

 Truth is, people will NEVER return to using rail transport in the way they HAD to when I was young....those days are GONE. I am not saying rail doesn't have an important, indeed vital role to play in the movemnt of bulk freight in this day and age, but as prime 'people mover'? No, only for rare long distance travel do most ever use them, aside from regular commuter routes of course. Fact is, people like their privacy and comfort...can some of YOU people HONESTLY envisage getting to your preservation pastime WITHOUT a car?

Try rail fares for a few days! Truth is, people will NEVER return to using rail transport in the way they HAD to when I was young....those days are GONE. ]

As fewer and fewer people can afford to run cars more and more will use the trains, walk or cycle. It is already happening. More people usethe trains now than when you were young anyway, so your point is invalid.

I am not saying rail doesn't have an important, indeed vital role to play in the movemnt of bulk freight in this day and age, but as prime 'people mover'? No, only for rare long distance travel do most ever use them, aside from regular commuter routes of course.

It will become the prime mover for exactly the reasons outlined above. It is price that will force people and freight onto rail, not romanticism!

Fact is, people like their privacy and comfort...can some of YOU people HONESTLY envisage getting to your preservation pastime WITHOUT a car?

Not sure who you are addressing this to. The New S&D is not about preservationism - this blog has stated many times that that particular hobby is in its dying years. I can get to all places I need to without my car, as can (and do) many of my readers.

Without the tools you use to do the clearing?

Why would tools 'vanish?' The railways were built in the main without power tools, we'll simply go back to using less energy-intensive tools. No big deal.

If your cars were taken away from you, I think membership of these projects would fall to ZERO!Not being a 'damp squib' just being real.

You are not being real at all. You have a (very odd) agenda, encompassing climate change scepticism and a childish belief in a 'New World Order'. You have an enormous amount to take on board over the next few years. You've made a start by reading this blog - there may be hope for you yet !


I've probably been a little self-indulgent here - my energies should be directed at getting the S&D back, not arguing invalid fantasy points with people that are dooming themselves to a very bleak future because it won't match their requirements. All I ask is that we all drop the agendas and wishful thinking, look at verifiable (and credited) scientific FACTS, perhaps learn a little economics and geology and stop WISHING for things that aren't going to happen.

I promise I won't engage again. Climate Change and Peak Oil are just simple facts that we are all going to have to deal with in the future, every day. Our lives are going to change dramatically as the end of cheap energy hits us. Restoring the S&D is our little part in ensuring that some degree of civilization continues into the future. It is decadent and indulgent to argue what we know is true. The old oil world left a lot of people feeling alienated and powerless, like our poster, but it also gave them the time and the money to bang on about stuff that simply isn't true. There'll be no room for such sentiment and decadence in the energy-poor world, and I suspect that that is one of the better things that are going to come out of all this.

And why this particular poster? See my other main blog, THE WAR ON BULLSHIT, which I think explains it perfectly! The clue is in the blog name ...

perspective - and a new threat

I didn't even realise 'anti-car' books existed. I certainly never expected to read one!

But I have just finished the above. Now, to me, being 'anti-car' is a total waste of energy. The end of the car is now probably less than three decades off, so there's really no reason to waste a minute of one's time trying to hasten the inevitable.

But like most books it did give out some information that I'd never even thought about before. It covers the actual damage and change to our urban, suburban and rural landscape that the car has brought about. Not only the need for roads, but for parking spaces both at home and at work, as well as the destruction of 'real' town centres as out of town shopping areas, really only accessible to cars, became commonplace.

I've never been the slightest bit anti-car, and the book hasn't changed that at all. I'll still enjoy driving for as long as I can. But like most people I realise that the car (and the lorry and bus) are living on borrowed time. The usual refrain that the petrol and diesel-powered car will simply be replaced by LPG, electric and biofuel powered vehicles doesn't make sense as these alternatives will never be anywhere near as commonplace, and nowhere near as cheap, as oil. They are a sop to the simple man in the street, still worried about 'climate change' or 'the environment', rather than the real big issue of Peak Oil.

In reality the cost of running a car, which has been falling for decades, will soon begin to rise inexorably. No one disputes that oil is running out - it is a finite resource after all. The actual timing of the peak is still in doubt, it may have been several years ago, it may be as much as ten years into the future. It will only be clear with hindsight. Once the peak is reached the cost of oil, and all oil-derived products, will start to rise, slowly at first, but at an ever increasing pace.

The outcome is inevitable. As cars become more expensive to run less and less of us will be able to afford to run one. More of us will need to localise our lives and use public transport where available. The tax take from cars will start to fall, less money will be available to repair roads. There'll be a vicious circle of less cars, less money for roads, worse roads, less incentive to drive, more expense etc. I think when the end of the car comes it will all be over very quickly. And there's the threat. Will we be able to build the railways and tramways we need quickly enough? Will the skills, money, material and energy be available?
We can't worry about the wider picture though we obviously need to be aware of it. We can only concentrate on our small part of it. It is so important to get everything in place NOW so that we are prepared and ready to act when the decline comes. If in the meantime we can buy up trackbed, stations etc, and operate some sections of the route then all the better. What we are doing is so incredibly important, it's impossible to overstress our case.
There will be big news about the S&D over the next few months with the purchase and restoration of Midford, hopefully the restoration of Spetisbury, the launch of our new glossy Right Lines and a big media push. As always I'd like anyone who would like to take a more active role in what we're doing to contact me at leysiner@aol.com

the wrong model!

The 70’s pro road attitude ……….

1) railways are dead

2) railways are now trailways, they died and are not coming back

3) you're not putting a smelly old railway that’s costs the taxpayer 25 billion and only used by 5% of the population back through our children's landscaped nature trail (but we don’t mind if you build a 300 million relief road just over the other side of that hill if it means getting those blasted 44 ton trucks out of our village thanks!!)

There are still a few people who have this attitude, they are a dying breed, but to those who don't care one way or the other their views are still considered, a bit like those divs that (normally because they are paid to lie) claim that although global warming's happening it's not due to our activity in any way. There is of course a concensus amongst 95% of scientists that global warming is mainly due to our activities! (I hope this doesn't sound like enviro-babble to some of the beardies, it's not, it's just simple science!)

We do need to keep pushing our view (the correct one)

The 21st century pro-rail attitude ..........

1) roads are dying

2) railways are now trailways and cycleways, but this is simply a way of preserving the integrity of the trackbeds that are soon coming back

3) we will soon be desperate to have our railway put back, we can't afford to run our cars any more, the roads are falling to pieces, how are we going to get to work/shops/holidays unless you bring back our trains?

the future starts yesterday

Yesterday's announcement that an alliance of local residents and climate protestors had managed to get the third Heathrow Airport runway stopped dead in its tracks, the day after admissions that the British road network was cracking up after the 'harsh' winter, are more signs that the pendulum is now swinging fully in favour of rail development and reinstatement.

Heathrow 3 was always a dead duck, but I was surprised just how much retrenchment there's been from maintaining the road network. If governments really believed the hype that roads had a future would they really allow them to deteriorate as they are? If that were true surely almost all transport investment would go to roads? That's clearly not happening.

The real sign that air traffic was expected to decline happened years ago, when Concorde was retired with no replacement. The real sign that the decline of road traffic was expected was the opening of the Channel Tunnel as a rail, rather than road, tunnel.

So the process begun in the 80s and 90s, which was also yesterday in a different sense of the word. We do indeed live in interesting times!

wasted money ...

The huge snowfall [and very low temperatures] we’ve had in recent weeks has done terrible damage to Britain’s road network. There are now millions of potholes strewn across the country - in fact around one in every 120 yards, that are causing treacherous driving conditions. The total repair bill is estimated to be £10bn just to get all the UK’s highways back into shape and safe to use - equivalent to spending another 2012 Olympics just on resurfacing work. Source.

So to keep our dying road network up to speed we have to commit DOUBLE the total rail subsidy? This is a total waste of resources, the roads should be allowed to gradually return to nature and we should be investing in the future, not the past. It makes the Road Users' Alliance claims (see earlier post) that only £4bn a year is spent on roads look ridiculous (and see the comment section on Jurassic Park for a complete forensic dissection of that stupid claim!)

I wonder how much damage (if any) was done to the rail network by the recent cold winter?

cover story

Once again I can't resist posting James Howard Kunstler's latest blast. I suspect that, like me, he is pretty clear that 'climate change' is a cover story for Peak Oil. The more hysterical our 'leaders' get about climate change, the worse the energy situation is becoming. I don't say there's nothing to climate change - there clearly is - but the MEASURES being suggested to combat this seem more and more to be the measures societies attempting to deal with massive energy shortages would introduce. I'm convinced that governments are even creating 'deniers' to cover up what they are really up to - and that is me speaking as a complete sceptic on conspiracy theories!

JHK hits it on the nail. What is at stake is comfortable, road-based, energy-intensive sedentary consumerism. It's not climate change threatening this, but looming energy problems.

I have a very different writing style to JHK, and a very different world view, but I can see where he's coming from!

Climate, Oil and Delusion by James Howard Kunstler

Against a greater welter and flow of incoherence jerking the nation this way and that way en route to collapse comes "ClimateGate," the latest excuse for screaming knuckleheads to defend what has already been lost. It is also yet another distraction from the emergency agenda that the United States faces — namely the urgent re-scaling, re-localizing, and de-globalizing of our daily activities.

What seems to be at stake for the knuckleheads is their identity, their idea of what it means to be an American, which boils down to being an organism so specially blessed and entitled that it is excused from paying attention to reality. There were no doubt plenty of counterparts among the Mayans when the weather changed and their crops failed, and certainly the Romans had their share of identity psychotics who doubted reality even when Alaric the Visigoth was hoisting off their household treasure.

Reality doesn’t care if we are on-board with its mandates or not. The human race has to get with whatever program reality is serving up at a particular time. Are we shocked to learn that scientists fight among themselves and cheat as much as congressmen? Does that really change the relationships we understand about parts-per-million of carbon dioxide in the earth’s atmosphere and the weather?

What the people of the world can do or will do about a change in climate is something else. My guess is that the undertow of entropy is now too great to provoke any meaningful unified change in behavior. The collapse of the US economy is too close to the horizon, and the so-called developing nations will have problems equally severe. In the meantime, it is unlikely that any of the major players will burn less coal and oil, or not cheat on each other even if they pledge to burn less. People who are not knuckleheads will make the practical arrangements that they can. These will, by definition, be localized, small-scale, and non-global communities, doing what they would have to do anyway.

A parallel identity mania afflicts those who have decided that the Bakken shale oil deposits and the Marcellus gas play will allow the USA to cancel any modifications to our living arrangements. This cohort of knuckleheads wants to believe the public relations of the oil and gas industry, and in particular the bankers who are arranging the financing for these ventures. The facts are irrelevant to their identity-claims (that the USA has limitless energy resources). In fact, the Bakken shale formation is unlikely to produce more than a few hundred thousand barrels of oil a day in a nation used to burning about twenty million. A few hundred thousand might mean a lot if were only used to light kerosene lamps, but it is unlikely to keep the faithful motoring off to WalMart and Walt Disney World — which is the exact expectation of the knuckleheads.

Shale gas is a similar story. It will be too expensive to get out of the tight rock at a flow that will allow business as usual to continue. It certainly won’t be produced at under $10 a unit, and the nation’s comprehensive bankruptcy accelerates every day, making it less likely that the public can pay premium prices within the framework of our current living arrangement.

The Green Shoots crowd — a sub-category of identity maniacs, who think the USA is immune to the laws of history and physics — has made common cause with the oil and climate knuckleheads to proclaim that we are returning to normal, back to the "consumer" orgy, the suburban sprawl nexus of McHousing and miracle mortgages, and new frontiers of corporate profit-raking. They are tragically wrong. Instead, we’re headed into the wildest king-hell debt workout that the world has ever seen, which will propel a lot of people used to working in air-conditioned cubicles into a world made by hand. We march day by day into the great holiday season with mortgages going unpaid and the credit cards getting cancelled and money disappearing and the fears and grievances mounting. Pretty soon, the folks doing "God’s work" at Goldman Sachs (and their tribal kin on Wall Street) will announce their annual bonuses (because they are publicly-held companies, which have to do so). Won’t that be a galvanizing moment for us all?

final confirmation of peak oil ...

Peak Oilers generally are employed in the oil exploration or economics fields, but we're beginning to see Peak Oil break out of this rarified ghetto. Many investment advisers are now making the clear link between oil prices and the general economy and, surprisingly perhaps, the oil price is now being seen by some as the main determinant of an economy's performance.

This is a marker as to how things are developing, as are the huge price swings in oil since Hurricane Katrina. All of this was forecast by Peak Oil pioneers over a decade ago.

I know that Peak Oil is a far more technical subject than is (media-friendly) Climate Change. It doesn't have the same frisson or sense of excitement as does wild weather, we've not seen many films about it (the documentary Crude Impact is one, but no fiction as yet), no 'Day After Tomorrow' or the rubbish shown on Sci-Fi channel every week. There are only four novels using Peak Oil as a theme, though there are hundreds of factual works. But in many ways it is a far bigger threat to our way of life than is climate change, and certainly in the transport field it is of paramount importance. It still amazes me that most rail professionals and amateurs still don't allude to it. Whether that's through ignorance or fear is hard to say!

This is really an introduction to yet another pilfered article that these days arrive almost daily in my in box, coming almost exclusively from investment professionals. I know some of you don't like the Peak Oil stuff, others don't like my trips away from the S&D, but it is all grist to the mill. You can always skip these bits, but remember, this will affect you in the future and there are things you can do today to ease the transition for you and your family to a post peak oil world. I don't go for the apocalyptic approach, the situation is not only survivable but we should come out the other end living in a far better world, with different priorities and a different pace of life.


The biggest threat to the recovery – the soaring oil price

Oil cartel Opec is starting to get a bit twitchy about the soaring oil price.

The Angolan oil minister, Jose Botelho de Vasconcelos, reckons that $75-$80 a barrel is the optimum level for both consumers and producers. We’ll come back to that view in a moment. But he’s also worried. If the price keeps rising towards $100 a barrel, Opec members might be open to pumping a bit "more oil into the market," he says.

But why should Opec be worried by rising prices? And can they do anything about them?

Oil's threatening to escape its 'optimal' price

The world is gradually succumbing to the notion that we’re back in Goldilocks territory. Economic policy is "not too hot and not too cold" – it’s "just right". The one big blot on the horizon is the rocketing oil price.

Although it slipped back yesterday, oil has recently clawed its way above the $80 a barrel mark. That’s threatening to escape from its ‘optimum’ range of $75 to $80 a barrel, says Opec president, Jose Botelho de Vasconcelos. "I think a balanced price is always better."

Now I can’t claim to have any idea where Opec gets this optimal ‘balanced price’ of $75-$80 a barrel from. I suspect that it simply comes down to what they think they can get away with. Bear in mind that at any point in history other than the past two years, an oil price at that sort of level would have been deemed an utter catastrophe for the global economy. After Hurricane Katrina, for example, the highest the oil price rose was to just over $70 a barrel.

So it’s quite impressive that oil producers have managed to ‘sell’ the idea of $70 plus for a barrel of oil as an aspirational target price, rather than a horrendously expensive level for the world’s key raw material.

Why Opec is concerned about the soaring oil price

But now even Opec is concerned. For one thing, once you get to this price, countries and independent producers have much greater incentive to seek both alternative energy sources, and alternative oil sources. Investment in these areas has been hit by the recession, but it’ll soon pick up again if it looks like $80 oil is here to stay. So by a ‘balanced’ oil price, Opec means one which generates lots of profit for them, but is still not sufficiently attractive to encourage serious investment in alternatives.

And of course, there’s the little matter of the global economy. One of my key personal economic barometers is the price at the petrol pump. When the price per litre dipped briefly below 90p earlier this year, I felt that little bit richer. Now that it’s pushing £1.10 again, I’m wondering where to cut back.

As Neil Atkinson at KBC Services tells The Times, "if the oil price continues to rise in the next week or two, there is a danger that the economic recovery will be strangled at birth." A fresh collapse in the global economy would of course hammer the oil price again.

So Opec wants to avoid killing the golden goose. High oil prices sow the seeds of their own destruction, and the oil cartel would ideally like to find the ‘Goldilocks’ level at which they can make handsome profits while allowing the global economy to stay afloat.

But can Opec increase production faster than the world’s central banks can increase the money supply? If oil prices are being driven higher by the same thing pushing up every other asset class – cheap and free-flowing money – then Opec’s efforts to fiddle with supply and demand will have little impact on the price.

This is a serious threat to the current ‘recovery’. Andy Xie argues in the South China Morning Post that high oil prices in 2006 were the "final straw that tipped the US property market" – US consumers squeezed by rising petrol (gas) prices finally succumbed to the weight of their unaffordable debts. He also argues that the resurgence of oil in 2008 "pulled the rug out from under the derivatives bubble."

An oil bubble, he says, is different from others. It hurts consumption, and it also drives inflation higher, which eventually results in tighter monetary conditions. "Oil speculation is the party crasher, even though it destroys itself by destroying others."

How to protect your portfolio from the oil price rise

He reckons that there’s a good chance that we’ll see $100 oil again sooner rather than later. But that will almost certainly mean a "double-dip" recession in 2010, as once fiscal stimulus is pulled out of the economy, consumers are unlikely to pick up the slack, due to high levels of unemployment. John Mauldin of Investors Insight agrees – he also "firmly believes" that we’re heading for a double-dip recession in the next 18 months. And during a recession, he points out, share prices fall by an average of 40% – so "adjust your portfolios accordingly," he advises.

Source http://www.moneyweek.com/

back to the future

This is an advert from the early 20th century - for an electric car. We all know that the internal combustion engine won the battle. Why? Simple - it is far cheaper to use petrol and diesel than electricity.

So why is the electric car about to replace internal combustion? It's nothing to do with global warming, but everything to do with economics. Governments, oil professionals and even some car manufacturers know that the game's up. The trumpeting of a tiny oil find last week in the press, an oil find described as 'giant' yet only big enough to supply the world for eleven DAYS, is a clue as to how bad things are getting. These are desperate times, only delayed slightly by the recession. Oil is once again heading upwards. Forecasts of $200-$500 a barrel are beginning to be made again. At these prices, even the bottom end, all civilian air traffic and most road traffic will vanish.

The average economist claims that as the price of oil rises more exploration will kick in alleviating any shortages. This may be true, but the important thing to bear in mind is that this oil will be more expensive. Peak oil effects will still happen because many drivers will be priced out of the market.


So this last final gasp of personal private transport seems to be heading for - electric cars. This week's Economist (5.9.09 vol 392 number 8647 pp79-81) had an interesting article on this coming transport revolution. The whole article seemed to pivot around whether the cars would be recharged at home, or simply change batteries at service stations. But at no point is it discussed as to where all this extra energy is going to come from, which grated somewhat with an article in the same magazine a few weeks earlier that forecast regular power cuts in the UK from 2013 onwards, because current capacity is being CUT as nuclear power stations are being decommissioned without being replaced. And this is before all the extra demand from electric cars!

Face it, nobody wants electric cars out of choice. They are going to be expensive, have limited range and still use loads of conventional energy in their construction - and will need oil for their tyres and, of course, for all that asphalt in the road services. All it will do is delay the inevitable switch to rail by a few years.

What really needs to happen, in the UK, is for the government to actually admit that road transport has no future. They need to get cross party support for this admission so that no other party benefits in an election from the truth being announced. They then need to selectively close roads, switch all freight to rail, abandon all new road developments and begin to build at least 200-300 miles of new railways EVERY year. Reversing the Beeching cuts will only be the start. They also need to speed up the planning process so that local initiatives can cheaply introduce light rail to link small towns and villages, factories and trading areas, to the main network. Urban trams need to be introduced to ALL cities and towns of 30,000 population and more.

The future is rail, electrically powered from sustainable sources (including nuclear) or steam powered from wood burning. All communities need to have either heavy or light railways, locally owned and operated, feeding into a nationally or internationally owned high speed trans-European rail network which is already beginning to replace doomed air travel.

This is the future into which the New S&D is boldly leading the way - pushing against the biggest open door in history even if sometimes it doesn't seem that way.

Join and/or donate!

roads and cars - musings!

Hmmmm - this was the scene from our Geneva hotel window when a Ukrainian coach driver tried to negotiate an impossible corner. It took around 20 minutes and a few squashed bikes to get him out ...


We flew easyJet then hired a car to get around in Switzerland. Normally we'd use the train as it's so easy but because there were four of us this time it actually worked out cheaper to use a hire car.


But we still took the train down to Aigle on the Saturday rather than drive. You can just make out the Leysin to Aigle road below the train here. It takes about four times the distance by road than rail. Imagine attempting this in winter!


A typical road in the UK. This is not efficient. Yesterday some people had to sit for up to six hours on the M5 because some fool had decided the Avonmouth Bridge was a good place to commit suicide. So everything ground to a halt, just as people wanted to get away for the last bank holiday of the year. Traffic was diverted through Bristol causing chaos all over. Today a similar thing has happened because of an accident.

Look at most drivers. They are not capable of driving properly. This country gives away driving licenses too easily. This is doubtless a political decision so there's not too much clamour for new railways - yet.

But as the cost of fuel does what the goverment should have done years ago - drive millions of useless drivers off the road - the clamour will become unbearable. Who will the government turn to first to rebuild Britain's transport infrastructure? Groups like ours that will, by then, have a ten or twenty year track record in the rail reinstatement industry.

To keep on my toes I always read stuff from the other, cornucopian, view on oil. That there is still plenty to go round, and if anything it will get cheaper. (This is a bit like saying air temperatures are falling and glaciers are advancing!)

There was a piece in Moneyweek this week that declared that Peak Oil just doesn't hold up. It goes on to state that there are ten trillion barrels of oil left in the earth, 35% of which should be recoverable. Three and a half trillion sounds a lot, but not when we are using 86 million barrels a day. I did the maths - this cornucopian view gives us 111 years of oil left. But, consider this. I have assumed NO increase in demand, and accepted that this highly contentious estimate is correct. In reality there is probably far less recoverable oil in the ground and demand will continue to rise, especially from China and India, relentlessly. Assuming these more realistic estimates I would suspect that the figure is closer to 50 years. But that doesn't mean cheap oil will be available for 50 years, then disappear overnight. It still means that the crunch will come within 10 to 20 years, pretty much the same timeframe that restoration of the S&D is working on. If anything these oddballs who aren't educated or scientific enough to 'get' Peak Oil can only make things worse by lulling the gullible into a false sense of security.

Anyway, what I'm trying to say is that rail, for many reasons, is far superior to road!

threat to heritage railways?

In climate terms, coal is the most damaging fossil fuel there is, and despite all the assertions from industry and government, the "carbon capture and storage" technology required to make coal "clean" does not exist.

What do you think? Do pure heritage railways using steam have any future? Please post comments in the comments section!

busway impressions

I'd promised a piece on busways weeks ago so I thought I'd do an impressionistic piece rather than a straight narrative as a few people have had a lot to say on this.

1. Today, after finishing nights I decided I would pay a visit to the guided busway near the A14. This busway replaced a railway that although closed to freight in 1992 still had track in situ and was reckoned to cost £50m to reinstate for passenger use. Instead the Tories on the local council decided to spend £116 million of taxpayers’ money on a guided busway, which only 4 persons voted for, with 2400 against!

With a spring 2009 opening date, things are obviously not going too well, but as they have spent so much money you will be told how much of a success it is, but my view as you might guess, is that it is just a pile of sh*te. It isn’t a road, nor is it a railway, but it looks more like a plateway as seen in the NRM and tried 200+ years ago. These boffins ought to get out their history books as see what has gone on before. I’m sure this was tried in Devon, a long, long time ago. Oh well, when it snows, floods etc, or the track needs tamping they’re going to find out how bad the whole thing is. All this to travel by bus! Smooth enough to drink coffee onboard they claim? Rightyo? Utter b*llocks there then?

And the freight will still be on the A14? I like trucking!

Anyway, like the open level crossing for the busway? Different rules apply there then? Someone will eventually jump the lights, as per railway crossings!

Ignore the weeds, they won’t grow much ...


2. 3800 voted for the return of the railway, 4 for the buses!

http://www.castiron.org.uk/

sounds like EU style democracy?

3. When the guided bus nonsense is finally abandoned, I have little doubt that nobody will be accountable for wasting the public's money. I believe that the Glasgow one is now being abandoned -any info? I don't think the Aussie one has been deemed a success either. I have also heard that there was a collision on one (info?) and both rail and road inspectors refused to get involved. Surely this comes under ROGS? 'Rail and Other Guided Systems'? (My italics) I think Cast Iron may well be able to stir things up big-time if there is an incident! But like you say Steve; you couldn't make it up.

4. Apparently according to a comment on your blog, Dunstable is next in line for a busway? Again the track is still in situ.

Do they Tory road brigade feel more threatened by the fact the rails are still there, and they need to deal with these former railways first?

Long term they’ll lose…

5. I got this today Steve. Guess what? Guided buses are excluded. What cr*p! They're guided for crying out loud! Other Guided Systems - Hah!

http://www.rail-reg.gov.uk/upload/pdf/rogs-gdnce_270709.pdf

6. Caught the local news for Gosport last night (Meridian I think it was) and the Guided Bus fiasco has been given the go-ahead there now. The usual crowd of dip-sticks were interviewed for (pro) vox pop, and some bloke who was against it cuz his garden backed onto it, then a huge bunch of 'genuine' antis were shown but none were interviewed to give their view. Biased reporting I think it's called!!

7. Yeh; you're right Steve - the dozy sods try and drive alone railway lines so it's anybody's guess how long it'll be before there is a crash of some kind - head on twixt bus and car probably. Did you get my email re the ROGS? What a bloody fiasco! The guided buses are specifically excluded. Is it guided or what?! There was definately a crash on one somewhere and both road and rail investigators refused to have anything to do with it! Checkout the Glasgow one (found it somewhere on the web) It's being abandoned in favour of a tram apparantly. Incidentally, I've got a funny feeling that the inventor of this has actually come out and said it's a nonsense.

8. http://www.cambridgeshire.gov.uk/transport/guided/

just heard on the local anglia bbc news that the busway is being delayed again and won’t now open until November….

Just in time for a bit of snow hopefully?

My own twopennyworth - This is all good fun - except for those communities that are going to suffer this barely believable misallocation of resources. I think this government, cravenly backed by certain opposition councils, is frightened of what will happen when the hornets' nest of rail reinstatement really takes off, for we are talking HUGE sums of money, and to get that they will have to accept and declare the reality of Peak Oil. We'll probably be drip fed the information, look out for a slight backing away from Climate Change and more emphasis on 'energy security', still a clumsy attempt to cloud the issue but at least a step in the right direction. This will probably all come out when the government (whoever it is) needs to start building nuclear power stations.

Busways will come and go, like monorails and other impractical pretend trains. I firmly believe that St Ives will get its trains back, but they may need to wait a few more years. In the meantime consider the busway as a custodian of the trackbed, a rather more expensive Sustrans!

None of this will affect the New S&D of course ...

bournemouth in the future

DORSET and the New Forest could be in for an environmental lashing over the coming years if emissions are not cut, a report has warned.

Summers could be up to six degrees hotter and 49 per cent drier, winters 54 per cent wetter and four degrees warmer, with sea levels rising, according to the UK Climate Projections 09 study.

Let's look at this purely from the angle of tourism. Summers are going to get hotter and drier. Remind you of anywhere? The Med perhaps?

In thirty years time summers will be around 2 degrees C hotter. And if scientists have yet again veered on the side of caution then that's probably at the bottom end of the range.

In thirty years time air travel will have all but ended. Cheap flights will be just a memory and most airport runways will have grassed over through disuse.

In thirty years time almost all overland travel will be by rail. A few roads may struggle on in some urban areas with the odd electric or fuel cell car, and millions of bikes, but all mass transit will be rail based.

In thirty years time Bournemouth will be a sun-soaked seaside resort par excellence, with a nine month summer season and mild winters.

Sounds like a good place to have a terminus for the New S&D!

when even he gets it ....

David Bailey, our webmaster, has just sent me this gem on the death of GM in the USA.

Whilst Michael Moore is still using that old scapegoat Climate Change as the reason for this it is still 99% sound. Buses? Never! I never thought I'd agree with someone from the opposite end of the political spectrum to me, but perhaps this shows just how deep-seated this all is!


Goodbye, GM ...by Michael Moore

I write this on the morning of the end of the once-mighty General Motors. By high noon, the President of the United States will have made it official: General Motors, as we know it, has been totaled.

As I sit here in GM's birthplace, Flint, Michigan, I am surrounded by friends and family who are filled with anxiety about what will happen to them and to the town. Forty percent of the homes and businesses in the city have been abandoned. Imagine what it would be like if you lived in a city where almost every other house is empty. What would be your state of mind?

It is with sad irony that the company which invented "planned obsolescence" -- the decision to build cars that would fall apart after a few years so that the customer would then have to buy a new one -- has now made itself obsolete. It refused to build automobiles that the public wanted, cars that got great gas mileage, were as safe as they could be, and were exceedingly comfortable to drive. Oh -- and that wouldn't start falling apart after two years. GM stubbornly fought environmental and safety regulations. Its executives arrogantly ignored the "inferior" Japanese and German cars, cars which would become the gold standard for automobile buyers. And it was hell-bent on punishing its unionized workforce, lopping off thousands of workers for no good reason other than to "improve" the short-term bottom line of the corporation. Beginning in the 1980s, when GM was posting record profits, it moved countless jobs to Mexico and elsewhere, thus destroying the lives of tens of thousands of hard-working Americans. The glaring stupidity of this policy was that, when they eliminated the income of so many middle class families, who did they think was going to be able to afford to buy their cars? History will record this blunder in the same way it now writes about the French building the Maginot Line or how the Romans cluelessly poisoned their own water system with lethal lead in its pipes.

So here we are at the deathbed of General Motors. The company's body not yet cold, and I find myself filled with -- dare I say it -- joy. It is not the joy of revenge against a corporation that ruined my hometown and brought misery, divorce, alcoholism, homelessness, physical and mental debilitation, and drug addiction to the people I grew up with. Nor do I, obviously, claim any joy in knowing that 21,000 more GM workers will be told that they, too, are without a job.

But you and I and the rest of America now own a car company! I know, I know -- who on earth wants to run a car company? Who among us wants $50 billion of our tax dollars thrown down the rat hole of still trying to save GM? Let's be clear about this: The only way to save GM is to kill GM. Saving our precious industrial infrastructure, though, is another matter and must be a top priority. If we allow the shutting down and tearing down of our auto plants, we will sorely wish we still had them when we realize that those factories could have built the alternative energy systems we now desperately need. And when we realize that the best way to transport ourselves is on light rail and bullet trains and cleaner buses, how will we do this if we've allowed our industrial capacity and its skilled workforce to disappear?

Thus, as GM is "reorganized" by the federal government and the bankruptcy court, here is the plan I am asking President Obama to implement for the good of the workers, the GM communities, and the nation as a whole. Twenty years ago when I made "Roger & Me," I tried to warn people about what was ahead for General Motors. Had the power structure and the punditocracy listened, maybe much of this could have been avoided. Based on my track record, I request an honest and sincere consideration of the following suggestions:

1. Just as President Roosevelt did after the attack on Pearl Harbor, the President must tell the nation that we are at war and we must immediately convert our auto factories to factories that build mass transit vehicles and alternative energy devices. Within months in Flint in 1942, GM halted all car production and immediately used the assembly lines to build planes, tanks and machine guns. The conversion took no time at all. Everyone pitched in. The fascists were defeated.

We are now in a different kind of war -- a war that we have conducted against the ecosystem and has been conducted by our very own corporate leaders. This current war has two fronts. One is headquartered in Detroit. The products built in the factories of GM, Ford and Chrysler are some of the greatest weapons of mass destruction responsible for global warming and the melting of our polar icecaps. The things we call "cars" may have been fun to drive, but they are like a million daggers into the heart of Mother Nature. To continue to build them would only lead to the ruin of our species and much of the planet.

The other front in this war is being waged by the oil companies against you and me. They are committed to fleecing us whenever they can, and they have been reckless stewards of the finite amount of oil that is located under the surface of the earth. They know they are sucking it bone dry. And like the lumber tycoons of the early 20th century who didn't give a damn about future generations as they tore down every forest they could get their hands on, these oil barons are not telling the public what they know to be true -- that there are only a few more decades of useable oil on this planet. And as the end days of oil approach us, get ready for some very desperate people willing to kill and be killed just to get their hands on a gallon can of gasoline.

President Obama, now that he has taken control of GM, needs to convert the factories to new and needed uses immediately.

2. Don't put another $30 billion into the coffers of GM to build cars. Instead, use that money to keep the current workforce -- and most of those who have been laid off -- employed so that they can build the new modes of 21st century transportation. Let them start the conversion work now.

3. Announce that we will have bullet trains criss-crossing this country in the next five years. Japan is celebrating the 45th anniversary of its first bullet train this year. Now they have dozens of them. Average speed: 165 mph. Average time a train is late: under 30 seconds. They have had these high speed trains for nearly five decades -- and we don't even have one! The fact that the technology already exists for us to go from New York to L.A. in 17 hours by train, and that we haven't used it, is criminal. Let's hire the unemployed to build the new high speed lines all over the country. Chicago to Detroit in less than two hours. Miami to DC in under 7 hours. Denver to Dallas in five and a half. This can be done and done now.

4. Initiate a program to put light rail mass transit lines in all our large and medium-sized cities. Build those trains in the GM factories. And hire local people everywhere to install and run this system.

5. For people in rural areas not served by the train lines, have the GM plants produce energy efficient clean buses.

6. For the time being, have some factories build hybrid or all-electric cars (and batteries). It will take a few years for people to get used to the new ways to transport ourselves, so if we're going to have automobiles, let's have kinder, gentler ones. We can be building these next month (do not believe anyone who tells you it will take years to retool the factories -- that simply isn't true).

7. Transform some of the empty GM factories to facilities that build windmills, solar panels and other means of alternate forms of energy. We need tens of millions of solar panels right now. And there is an eager and skilled workforce who can build them.

8. Provide tax incentives for those who travel by hybrid car or bus or train. Also, credits for those who convert their home to alternative energy.

9. To help pay for this, impose a two-dollar tax on every gallon of gasoline. This will get people to switch to more energy saving cars or to use the new rail lines and rail cars the former autoworkers have built for them.

Well, that's a start. Please, please, please don't save GM so that a smaller version of it will simply do nothing more than build Chevys or Cadillacs. This is not a long-term solution. Don't throw bad money into a company whose tailpipe is malfunctioning, causing a strange odor to fill the car.

100 years ago this year, the founders of General Motors convinced the world to give up their horses and saddles and buggy whips to try a new form of transportation. Now it is time for us to say goodbye to the internal combustion engine. It seemed to serve us well for so long. We enjoyed the car hops at the A&W. We made out in the front -- and the back -- seat. We watched movies on large outdoor screens, went to the races at NASCAR tracks across the country, and saw the Pacific Ocean for the first time through the window down Hwy. 1. And now it's over. It's a new day and a new century. The President -- and the UAW -- must seize this moment and create a big batch of lemonade from this very sour and sad lemon.

Yesterday, the last surviving person from the Titanic disaster passed away. She escaped certain death that night and went on to live another 97 years.

So can we survive our own Titanic in all the Flint Michigans of this country. 60% of GM is ours. I think we can do a better job.

electric cars - the next con

So everyone is now talking about electric cars, that they are going to save the world! This is hilarious. The worst thing is that Gordon Brown et al keep explaining that this is to control CO2 emissions, no mention of Peak Oil!

The fact is that to switch all the UK's cars to electric power - which is after all what these idiots are proposing - will require current UK electricity generating capacity to increase FOURFOLD. (Source Analysis commissioned by CBT from Keith Buchan of the Metropolitian Transport Research Unit) This does not take into account the embedded energy also required to build these vehicles. Not even the greenest hippy would claim that renewables could supply even a tiny percentage of this increase so where is the only place it could come from? Coal. Great news for the pits of North Somerset but very bad news for the climate.

These odd ideas will fall one by one as the seriousness of the energy crunch comes clear to even the most befuddled politician. We need to constantly argue the case for rail, to stress how much more energy efficient it is (ironically 400%), and to point out that once a line is in place almost all the income is profit. The Americans and continental Europeans understand this, particularly with regard to freight, it will not be that long before our dull lot realise it too. But a little bit of lobbying and information thrown their way won't hurt either!

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